Debit & Credit Spread Expectancy Calculator

Compare modeled vertical-spread outcomes, then use your own trading results to calculate historical expectancy.


What this mode assumes: Every winning trade realizes maximum profit and every losing trade realizes maximum loss. “Assumed win rate” may be estimated from probability of profit, but POP is not necessarily the probability of earning maximum profit.

Shared Assumptions

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%

Historical win rate is preferable when enough relevant trades are available.

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Optional. Enter the total cost to open and close one complete spread.

Why the Two Modes Differ

A vertical spread can finish at maximum profit, maximum loss, or anywhere between them. The theoretical mode simplifies that range into two outcomes. The historical mode uses your average realized winner and loser, capturing early exits, partial outcomes, slippage, and trade management.

Debit Spread

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Maximum profit
Maximum loss / capital at risk
Maximum ROI
Break-even win rate
Expectancy per spread
Theoretical expectancy (% of risk)

Credit Spread

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Maximum profit
Maximum loss / capital at risk
Maximum ROI
Break-even win rate
Expectancy per spread
Theoretical expectancy (% of risk)

Theoretical expectancy = (win rate × net maximum profit) − (loss rate × net maximum loss)

The result is a simplified model, not a forecast or trading recommendation. Prices are entered per share; dollar results use the standard 100-share option multiplier. Assignment, exercise, slippage, taxes, and partial outcomes are not modeled separately.